Societies are vulnerable to weather and climate extremes which put agriculture, infrastructure (e.g. electricity supply and transport) and human life at risk. For example, heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall with related flash and large-scale flooding have becaome more frequent and intense in recent years, posing increasing threats to societies. Likewise, extratropical cyclones, like Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones, become more hazardous, especially in the densely populated coastal areas.
Weather and climate variability in the mid-latitudes are largely controlled by variations in the atmospheric jet streams and associated storm-tracks, which in turn are modulated by the temperature field in the underlying oceans (see schematic figure). Changes in the North Atlantic thus have the potential to affect millions of people in Europe and North America. The main objective of ROADMAP (The Role of ocean dynamics and Ocean-Atmosphere interactions in Driving cliMAte variations and future Projections of impact-relevant extreme events) is to better understand how the ocean shapes the climate and associated extreme events in the northern hemisphere on seasonal time scales but also over multiple decades as climate-change progresses.
Specifically, ROADMAP will address:
- Ocean circulation effects on sea surface temperature
- Future changes in the Gulf Stream and its Pacific counterpart, the Kuroshio Current
- Impact of extratropical ocean conditions on jet streams, cyclones, atmospheric blocking events and their links to weather and climate extremes
- Influence of tropical surface ocean temperatures on extratropical atmospheric circulation
- Effects of Arctic sea ice and ocean temperatures on climatic extremes
- How intensity and frequency of intense Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones will change under global warming
- Interactions between oceanic and atmospheric patterns of variability
ROADMAP builds on and extends our knowledge of climate variability and predictability by bringing together experts from across the climate and ocean sciences. We aim to deepen our understanding of the predictable component of climate variability and better estimate the climate change impacts on the extratropical atmospheric circulation and extreme events in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The project will take advantage of the worldwide wealth of model simulations. We will go well beyond the state-of-the-art by analysing the latest high-resolution climate models and observations with advanced statistical-dynamical techniques and concepts from information theory. Additionally, ROADMAP will conduct dedicated experiments employing cutting-edge numerical techniques based on data assimilation and interactive ensemble modelling.
ROADMAP will lead to a better understanding of regional climate variability and change, as well as more reliable predictions of regional weather and climate extremes, including statements about the incidence of extratropical cyclones. More reliable climate predictions and projections can improve disaster prevention as well as adaptation and mitigation strategies. They can also make the business sector more resilient and competitive and optimize stakeholder decision. ROADMAP ensures the dissemination of its keyfindings to the scientists, stakeholders, climate services and the general public.
Coordinator: Dr. Daniela Matei
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Germany
Consortium
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, MPI-M, GERMANY
GEOMAR Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel und Universität Kiel, GEOMAR/UNI KIEL, GERMANY
Magdenburg-Stendal University of Applied Sciences - H2 & Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, H2/PIK, GERMANY
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, RMIB, BELGIUM
Laboratoire d'océanographie et du climat: expérimentations et approches numériques, LOCEAN, FRANCE
Laboratoire de météorologie dynamique, LMD, FRANCE
Maynooth University, MU, IRELAND
Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, CMCC, ITALY
Institute of Atmospheric Science and Climate of the National Research Council, CNR, ITALY
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, NERSC, NORWAY
University of Bergen, UiB, NORWAY
FCiências.ID (Instituto Dom Luiz), IDL, PORTUGAL