The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) initiative was approved during the 32nd JPI Oceans Management Board meeting in October 2024. The scoping phase that is typical for our regular Joint Actions was shortcut in favour of rapidity to launch the Joint Action directly in response to the relevance of the subject and to allow a quick outcome delivery.
Some recent studies have sparked concerns that AMOC could be approaching a tipping point leading to a significant weakening or even collapse of overturning, potentially leading to severe disruptions in weather patterns, sea levels, and ecosystems. AMOC is a constantly moving current driven by temperature and salinity. Hans-Otto Pörtner (Alfred Wegener Institute, AWI) presented an initial concept paper outlining scientific uncertainties, scientific controversy, and policy considerations on AMOC.
The meeting marked the beginning of a significant international effort to assess the stability and future of AMOC. The aim of this gathering was to define the Joint Action’s scope and objectives to be able to swiftly move to implementation. The experts discussed the importance of producing a review report as and update and deeper dive into AMOC since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. The report will provide a review of the AMOC, exploring its connections, uncertainties, and potential impacts on the environment and people. It will address AMOC patterns and stability using palaeoceanographic records, observational data, and model simulations, as well as the influence of a weakening or collapse on climate and ecosystems, including temperature shifts, sea-level rise, and biodiversity. The human and economic implications will be considered too, along with strategies for adaptation and mitigation, policy recommendations and governance approaches to support effective responses.
Experts emphasised the need for a clear and accessible narrative, avoiding overly technical divisions. The report will integrate insights from oceanography, climate science, and socioeconomics to ensure it is relevant to both scientific and policy audiences.
The meeting also addressed timelines, deliverables, funding, and the governance model to ensure a rapid output of high quality. A proposed three-day expert meeting in late 2025 was discussed as a key milestone, allowing for deeper discussions and collaboration among contributors.
The final report, expected within the next one and a half years, aims to provide decision-makers with robust evidence to inform climate policies at national and international levels. This ambitious timeline highlights JPI Oceans and JPI Climate's commitments to ensuring that scientific findings are effectively communicated to policymakers and other stakeholders, including the public.